Long-Term Projection of Water Cycle Changes over China Using RegCM

The global water cycle is becoming more intense in a warming climate, leading to extreme rainstorms and floods. In addition, the delicate balance of precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff affects variations soil moisture, which vital importance agriculture. A systematic examination climate change impacts on these variables may help provide scientific foundations for design relevant adaptation mitigation measures. this study, long-term over China are explored using Regional Climate Model system (RegCM) developed by International Centre Theoretical Physics. performance validated through comparing simulation results with remote sensing data gridded observations. show that RegCM can reasonably capture spatial seasonal three dominant (i.e., runoff). Long-term projections driving boundary conditions Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). increased annual average precipitation evapotranspiration be found most parts domain, while smaller part domain projected runoff. Statistically significant increasing trends (at level 0.05) detected 0.02 0.01 mm/day per decade, respectively, RCP4.5 both 0.03 decade RCP8.5. There no trend future anomalies. mainly occur wet season, increase decreases. changes minus larger than those runoff, implying possible decrease moisture.